C. S. Peirce on the Crisis of Confidence and the "No More Bets" Heuristic


Many scientific disciplines find themselves in the midst of a "crisis of confidence," where key empirical findings turn out to reproduce at an alarmingly low rate. The causes for the crisis are multifaceted and there does not appear to be a single silver-bullet solution. Nevertheless, some insight can be gained by considering two rules proposed by Charles Sanders Peirce almost 150 years ago. These rules are prerequisites for the proper evaluation of any scientific hypothesis using empirical data.


    title   = {{C}. {S}. {P}eirce on the {C}risis of {C}onfidence and the "{N}o {M}ore {B}ets" {H}euristic},
    author  = {Vandekerckhove, Joachim and Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan},
    year    = {2016},
    journal = {The Winnower},
    volume  = {4843}